#1,022: "Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan"
Within literally 2 minutes of word being released that Israel and Hamas had agreed to a Gaza ceasefire deal, I posted both a headline and a link to that effect on my Facebook page. Within a couple of minutes, a fellow I’ve known down here in South Florida for more than 40 years . . . and never really discussed politics with for reasons which will quickly become obvious . . . posted a 2-word response: “Thank Trump.” I quickly answered in 2 words “Thanks, no.”
The fellow responded to my answer in 6 words: “He threatened them and meant it.” Not being able to sit still, I wrote him back: “You give him far, far too much credit. It's Biden and his State Department that have been working on this for over a year.” My friend in turn wrote “You’ve got to be kidding! A Year !!?? The only thing Hamas or Iran types fear is force. Trump made it very clear after he was elected that if these lunatics didn’t release the American hostages ( assuming they are alive) by the time he took office they would pay a terrible price. If you think they are agreeing to release them a week before he takes office is a coincidence then you don’t understand how they see the world.”
At this point, not wishing to violate what I’ve been telling my university students for nearly 30 years (Don’t beat your head against a wall, engaging in political arguments with people who will never change their mind . . . unless you’re in love with migraine headaches”), I broke off the Facebook conversation. But this was by no means the end of the “Trump-was-solely-responsible-Biden-didn’t-accomplish-Jack-your’re-full-of-it-and you’re-a-liberal-no-nothing” back and forth.
As luck would have it, one of the “Hollywood Brats” (a second generation Property Manager) who was a mainstay of our temple youth group 60 years ago, took up the cudgels for his skinny friend and wouldn’t give an inch. This Hollywood Brat is a mountain of a man . . . easily the biggest of our crowd. He looks like the epitome of a hardcore jock (well, he does play a lot of golf) but is really a very bright and literate fellow. After about 30 back-and-forth postings, both men gave up the fight. I managed to call my “Brat” friend, thanked him for his staunch efforts, told him I would be writing this blog, and promised to safeguard his anonymity (except for others of our clique who will instantly know who I am writing about).
It should come as no surprise that Felon #47 and his staunchest loyalists firmly believe that a single, conning narcissist could pull off the ceasefire almost single-handedly because he is both lethally fearsome and the world’s best negotiator. Sorry to say, but this is simply not the way diplomacy works. It is a terribly difficult artform; some have even earned advanced degrees in it, from places like Georgetown University, Johns Hopkins and the “Rolls Royce” of such institutions, the Fletcher School of Diplomacy at Tufts University. Diplomatic successes do not occur overnight, which is what IT has tried to convince the public about . . . that he did not become involved in achieving the cease fire until the day after he won the 2025 election . . . an election in which nearly 36% of the American voting public did not cast ballots. To hear him tell it, the reason why the ceasefire took less than 2 months to achieve is because he put fear in the hearts and minds of those he faced, and is the world’s best negotiator. Again, this is simply not how diplomacy succeeds.
How can I put this? Well, consider an algae (which is neither bacteria nor plant but an aquatic photosynthetic organism) doubles in size in less than 24 hours. It begins life in, say Lake Michigan, as a teeny-tiny organism which cannot be seen without a microscope. Now, let’s say it takes 20 years to become visible to the naked eye. How long would it take to completely fill the lake’s 22,300 square miles? Believe it or not, if left unabated, less than 4 months. To those who pay no attention, it would seem that the lake was overtaken by this organism in a short span of time; to those who know something about microbiology, it took over 20 years. This, in a sense, is how a successful act of diplomacy works; it seems to happen overnight, but actually takes a lot of time and many starts and stops before it happens “overnight.”
Reportage on the Biden Administration’s initial efforts to patch together a ceasefire came as early as January 21st of last year. The first article published in the New York Times on January 21st, 2024 informed readers that the President and Sec. of State Anthony Blinken (who had already made several clandestine trips to the Middle East) were sending Middle East Coordinator Brett McGurk to meet with Egyptian and Qatari leaders “in hopes of making progress toward freeing captives held by Hamas.” This was likely the first time anyone outside of the White House, “Foggy Bottom” (which is the nickname for the State Department) or Capitol Hill had ever heard the name “McGurk.” He is a longtime diplomat who has served first as the Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant under Presidents Obama and Trump, who kept him on. He resigned this position during the first Trump Administration after 45’s October 2019 withdrawal from Syria, which McGurk had strongly warned against doing. Biden brought him back at the beginning of his administration and created a new position for McGurk: National Security Council for the Middle East and North Africa. He is well-schooled in the politics, culture and historical difficulties of the Middle East. Over the past year, occasionally accompanied by C.I.A. director William J. Burns, he has been on the road dealing with the leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah, Egypt and 5 of the 7 Gulf Coast Emirates (UAE, comprised of Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah and Ras al Khalman). Not universally loved or appreciated by more progressive members of the Democratic caucus on Capitol Hill (they say he doesn’t place human rights at the top of his agenda) he is widely acknowledged for knowing the politics, the people and the political psychology of Middle Eastern leaders.
Unlike Secretary McGurk’s years of diplomatic experience, the incoming administration’s Middle East representative, Steve Witkoff boasts no such credentials, but rather is a longtime (more than 4 decades) IT friend, business associate and golfing buddy. Like his pal, Witkoff and Jared Kusher’s father Charles (who, if approved will be America’s next Ambassador to France) Witkoff is a multi-billionaire property developer and investor. Like Jared, much of Witkoff’s investment capital comes from the Saudi’s and members of the U.A.E.
In addition to his business style and personal interests in the Middle East, Witkoff reportedly shares ITs brash personality. As an example, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that Witkoff called from Qatar to tell Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's aides that he would be coming to Israel the following afternoon in order to finalize the ceasefire deal, but was told by aides that the Israeli leader could not be disturbed during Shabbat, the Jewish day of rest. Witkoff, who is Jewish himself, responded “in salty English”, saying that he did not care what day it was. Netanyahu obliged. Whether or not this is 100% accurate is immaterial; the contretemps is already a part of the story that will be told for generations as yet unborn . . .
In the final days of ceasefire talks it came down to a triumvirate: McGurk (representing the Biden Administration and the State Department), Witkoff (representing the incoming administration and himself) and the Qatari P.M. (and chairman of the Board of “Aspire” – the Qatari Investment Company) Sheik Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. Behind the scenes – and located on various floors of the prime minister’s palatial compound close to the old market in downtown Doha – were, among others, representatives of Egypt, Israel and Hamas. Unwilling to meet face-to-face with either the American or Israeli delegation, the people representing Hamas had negotiation “talking points” hand delivered to their rooms.
Meanwhile, back in Jerusalem, Netanyahu and his far-right nationalist war cabinet were venting, accusing and threatening to leave his coalition if he took pen to paper and agreed to any ceasefire. In other words, they were holding Bibi’s feet to the fire; without their continuing membership in his coalition, his job (and very freedom) could be at stake. It is difficult to know what deal they reached in order for the Israeli P.M. to sign on to the agreement without losing his parliamentary majority . . . a tall order, to say the least. As of yesterday, far-right national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, did resign from the cabinet and encouraged like-minded parliamentarians to do the same, which could potentially force yet another “early election.”
It is far too early to know if the ceasefire will be worth the paper (sans handshakes) it’s written on. The first stage, if all goes according to plan (which rarely happens in the Middle East) is for a six-week cessation to hostilities. During that time, hostages and prisoners are scheduled to be freed; the precise number on both sides has been a point of contention since day one. During the ceasefire, upwards of 600 daily trucks of food, medicines and supplies will be delivered into Gaza, as the world’s economic powerhouses begin working on how the area will be rebuilt — how much it will cost, who will do the building, in what order will structures be constructed and how to keep graft and corruption to a minimum. All of this must be negotiated under a new American administration whose initial concern back home is the deportation of millions of illegal residents, getting a cabinet approved, and instituting a system of tariffs, not seen since the disastrous days of the Fordney-McCumber Act passed during the Harding Administration in 1922.
Unquestionably Bibi Netanyahu has given a pre-Inauguration gift to the man who will take the presidential oath of office later today. I fear, however, that it may well turn out to be a gift that will turn out to be as stable as mercury. Yes, Bibi has given Felon #47 the ability to boast that he - and he alone - was responsible for the ceasefire. At the same time President Biden has taken a quiet, gentlemanly share of the credit. It will be up to future historians to determine precisely who was most responsible for the Gaza ceasefire and, depending on whether it holds for even the initial 6-week period, whose fingerprints are the clearest. If the ceasefire manages to work and change the face of history, let everyone take a bow; if, alas, it falls apart, all we will hear or see is the sound of silence and the pointing of fingers.
For, as either JFK, Benito Mussolini’s son-in-law Galeazzo Ciano or the Roman historian and politician Tacitus said: Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan. (JKF supposedly said this after the utter failure of the Bay of Pigs fiasco); to Tacitus (56-120 CE) goes the original: Iniquum est hoc de bello; victoria ab omnibus petitur, non uni soli,” namely, “This is an unfair thing about war: victory is claimed by all, failure to one alone.”
Let us pray it will a victory for the many.
Copyright©2025 Kurt Franklin Stone