“Our greatest fears lie in anticipation.”
Honoré de Balzac (1799-1850).
As I begin writing this week’s essay, it is 11:15 AM EDT, on Sunday, the 24th of April 2022. The citizens of France are at the polls, voting for whether centrist Emmanuel Macron, the 8th President of the Fifth Republic of France will retain his presidency, or be bested by the ultra-right populist Marine Le Pen. Although going into the final days of the runoff campaign Macron’s polling show him to be ahead Le Pen by nearly 10 points, few political observers are sanguine about Macron being reelected for another 5-year term. That’s just in the nature of French national politics.
French politics have certain similarities to that which we experience here in the U.S. As is the case here across the pond, the French have a political left, right and center, although it is quite a bit more delineable in the land of Liberté, égalité, fraternité. Unlike in America, these political approaches are more or less codified into three separate political parties . . . but with a decided difference. Le Pen’s political party, the National Rally (Rassemblement National, formerly the “National Front”) is quite a bit more hard core far-right than our Republican Party; Macron leads the centrist La République En Marche! (frequently abbreviated LREM, and translatable as The Republic on the Move, or The Working Republic); LREM was Macron’s attempt to create a political home for those who were neither as statist as the Socialists nor as anti-immigrant or Fascistic as the far-right. Lastly, there is a far-left democratic-Socialist party called La France Insoumise (“France Unbowed”), headed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a former member of the European Parliament (MEP), who is, roughly speaking, the French equivalent of Bernie Sanders. In the first presidential primary, Mélenchon came in 3rd with nearly 23 % of the vote. Today, many Mélenchon supporters are either voting for Macron or staying home and abstaining.
The title of this week’s post, “Our greatest fear lies in anticipation,” (Nos plus grandes craintes résident dans l’anticipation) comes from La Comédie humaine by the great French writer Honoré de Balzac (1799-1850). Always filled to overflowing with pithy maxims, de Balzac really hits the nail on the head here. For with regards to today’s election in France, it’s not so much the anticipation of whether Le Pen will defeat Macron which stimulates our fear, but rather whether she - like Donald Trump here in America - will wind up having more power than Macron in shaping the next five years.
Like Trump and his coterie, Le Pen is a pathologic Islamophobe. Although she has toned down the verbal hatred and outrageousness since she last took on Emmanuel Macron, her political positions remain the same: anti-NATO, anti-immigrant and pro-Putin. When it comes to Putin, Le Pen has been totally up front and totally prideful about accepting a multi-million dollar loan from the Russian strongman. Were she to G-d forbid win the election she would then be able to attack NATO from the West while Putin does his best to bring it down from the East.
IT IS NOW 2:15 EDT: JUST A FEW MINUTES AGO, MARINE LE PEN CONCEDED THE ELECTION TO EMMANUEL MACRON!
HALLALUYAH!
Unlike Donald Trump, Mlle. Le Pen freely admits she’s been soundly defeated. The latest figures show Pres. Macron besting the final polling figures. (n.b. As of midnight the final figures are Macron 58.5%, Le Pen 41.5%). It should be kept in mind, that 5 years ago, he defeated Marine Le Pen by a much wider margin than today’s 17 points. However, this is the first time that an ultra-right candidate has scored above 40% in a presidential election. Being a political animal, Mlle. Le Pen, who publicly ran on such issues as “. . . our daily lives - salaries, taxes, pensions” - put the best, most positive spin on her loss as possible, calling the results ". . . a shining victory . . . in this defeat, I can’t help but feel a form of hope.” It should be noted that the French will go back to the polls for Parliamentary elections on June 12 and 19. It is likely that Le Pen’s Rassemblement National will pick up additional seats in the 577-member body. As of this morning, Macron’s La République en Marche group has 308 deputies. It will be Le Pen’s purpose to get as many of her allies elected, thereby weakening Macron’s chances for enacting his national political agenda.
As word spreads across Europe of Macron’s victory, various leaders have expressed their overwhelming joy:
Spanish P.M. Pedro Sánchez: “Democracy wins. Europe wins.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: “Together we will make France and Europe advance.”
Italian Premier Mario Draughi: “. . . splendid news for all Europe, and a “boost to the E.U. being a protagonist in the greatest challenges of our times, starting with the war in Ukraine.”
President Biden called President Macron Sunday night, but was only able to speak with members of his staff. When asked about this, Biden told reporters after returning to Washington from a weekend trip in Delaware, “I feel good about the French election . . . . I tried to talk to him last night. I spoke to his staff and he was at the Eiffel Tower having a good time. And I’m going to be talking to him today.”
The French, it has long been noted, don’t generally love their presidents; with his victory, Macron becomes the first to be reelected since 2002. Somewhat predictably, Le Pen did better in the country’s north and in southern areas along the Mediterranean; both areas are rural, economically depressed and less educated. Macron’s base is largely urban, better educated and far less likely to blame France’s economic and cultural difficulties on immigrants. If this sounds a bit familiar, it should; in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and much of Europe, political divisions are drawn largely between those who are fearful of being overrun by “aliens” and those who see that the future will undoubtedly be different . . . so why not help make the best of it?
Considering the frightful rightward turn in the politics of so many countries, Macron’s victory offers for many, a brief international sigh of relief. Today we celebrate; tomorrow many will be back to fearing the future. For those inclined to fearfulness, remember de Balzac’s insight . . . that the genesis of fear is anticipation. Anticipation - whether it be about future success or failure - is at root an abstraction; it need not be real. Let us hold on to Emmanuel Macron’s victory and see it as a harbinger for greater sanity and humanity in the political realm, rather than a mere blip on the screen of growing autocracy.
Vraiiment: ‘Nos plus grandes craintes résident dans l’anticipation.
Copyright©2022 Kurt F. Stone