An October Surprise to End All October Surprises

Maj. Gen. George B. McClellan, C. 1862

It’s gotten to the point where it’s all but impossible to believe anything anymore. I’ve already chatted up at least a couple of dozen people who have grave suspicions that the President and Mrs. Trump’s (not to mention a lot of high-ranking Republicans and members of his White House staff) having tested positive for COVID-19 is an “October Surprise” - some kind of a hoax; a way of managing the news by trading in last week’s headlines for a new “page one above-the-fold” story. Let’s face it, after last week’s debate debacle and the New York Times front-page headlines about 45’s having paid only $750.00 in federal taxes in both 2017 and ‘18, the Trump team needed to do something - anything - to turn the tide from what’s increasingly looking like a electoral rout.

Around the time U.S. deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic went beyond the 100,000 mark (and well before ‘45’s “Stand back and stand by” charge to the white supremacist “Proud Boys,” I began making notes for a possible satiric piece in which several weeks before the November 3rd election, a desperate White House would announce that POTUS had contracted COVID-19, and the Cabinet, under terms of the 25th Amendment, would then turn the reins of authority over to VP Pence. Then, during the period that Pence would be acting POTUS, he would announce that he was granting transactional immunity - an across-the-board pardon - for Trump, regardless of whatever future federal charges might be waged against him. For reasons which no long matter, those notes never became manifest; the satire yet remains in a computer file. The title was to have been The October Surprise That Changed History.

In the meantime, I have done quite a bit of research on various “October Surprises” in American political history.  The earliest I could find went back to the presidential election of 1864, pitting incumbent Abraham Lincoln and former Union general George B. McClellan (1826-85).  In the spring of 1864 Lincoln was worried that he would go down to defeat.  This was grounded in Lincoln’s concern over Northern anger over the Emancipation Proclamation and the length of the war. Then, two “October Surprises” coalesced, handing Lincoln an overwhelming 55.03%-44.95% victory in the popular vote and a 212-21 swamping of  McClellan in the Electoral College.  What were the 2 surprises?

First,  the Democratic Convention, held in Chicago, nominated McClellan and adopted a peace platform, which called for a negotiated end to the war, as well as a repeal of the Emancipation Proclamation.  Quite a gift for Lincoln’s “National Union” ticket. Then, following quickly on the heels of McClellan’s nomination, was the increase in decisive Union victories: Admiral David. Farragut’s  capture of Mobile; two days after the Democratic convention General Sherman took Atlanta and began marching through Georgia, Ulysses S. Grant made progress at Petersburg, and General Philip Sheridan began his devastation of Virginia.  Goodbye to McClellan, the “Young Napoleon” (who would eventually be elected the 24th Governor of New Jersey in 1878) and welcome back Honest Abe.  This, of course, was not an “October Surprise” planned or prepared by Lincoln; that’s just the way things turned out.

Then there was the “October Surprise” of 1960 near the end of the Kennedy/Nixon joust. Two days before the final debate between Senator Kennedy and Vice President Richard Nixon, civil-rights leader Martin Luther King was arrested. King was jailed along with 52 other blacks who were trying to desegregate a Georgia restaurant. He was sentenced to four months of hard labor based on breaking probation (King had previously been charged with driving without a license, when he actually had been driving with an Alabama license in Georgia). King's wife, Coretta, was frantic and called Harris Wofford, a Kennedy campaign aide (and future one-term Pennsylvania senator), claiming that "they are going to kill him [King]." Wofford contacted Sargent Shriver, who was married to Kennedy's sister Eunice. Shriver convinced Kennedy that he should telephone King's wife, which he did, expressing his concern. Meanwhile, Kennedy's brother Robert (his future Attorney General) negotiated with the judge and secured a promise that King would be released on bail.

In contrast, Nixon consulted with Eisenhower's attorney general (William P. Rogers), who advised him not to intervene in the matter. The Kennedys' intervention gained JFK support from blacks, including King's father, an influential minister who had previously supported Nixon. The senior King told the press, "I've got a suitcase of votes, and I'm going to take them to Mr. Kennedy and dump them in his lap." As Evan Thomas writes in Robert Kennedy: His Life, "Just two phone calls -- one by JFK, one by RFK -- decided the outcome of the election, and determined the course of racial politics for decades to come." Kennedy won the close election, 49.7 percent to Nixon's 49.5 percent.

Lastly, there was the election of incumbent President Bill Clinton and Republican Senator Robert Dole. Clinton planned his own “October Surprise” in his re-election bid. In June, 1996, Clinton met with top FBI and CIA aides in hopes of organizing a successful sting against the Russian Mafia, which had been rumored to be interested in selling a nuclear missile. The operation failed to become a real October Surprise, however. Clinton also hoped he might be able to broker a last-minute deal between the Palestinians and Israelis. The two sides however only agreed to more talks. Clinton nonetheless won reelection, the first Democrat to do so since Franklin Roosevelt.

These are by no means the only “October Surprises” within American presidential history.  This current surprise - Trump’s sudden whisking away to Walter Reed Army Hospital due to a positive rendering on his most recent COVID-19 test, is unlike any other.  Coming on the heels of a failed impeachment, a disastrous debate and the discovery that he had basically skated on his federal taxes for more than a decade (among a plethora of other episodes and events) have put the future of his presidential reelection  campaign - let alone his very future as a supposedly wealthy free citizen -  in dire jeopardy.  Throughout his nearly 4 years in office, he and his staff/enablers have shown an almost genius-level ability to transform today’s nasty, negative headlines into the opposite side of the story. 

Even if it is true that ’45 is sick – as opposed to having made the entire scenario up – it is hard to see how it’s going to help him get reelected.  Then too, there is his moral/legal/ethical culpability - by his  very silence and mismanagement of the pandemic - of nearly 210,000 deaths and the recent spate of positive tests for his closest followers and family members. For months on end, he and his people have downplayed the seriousness of the COVID pandemic, making it abundantly clear that anyone who wears a mask or sticks to social distancing is a wuss . . . a weak-kneed, dastardly milquetoast who is likely a Socialist to boot. The fact that ’45 has continually derided both science and the very statistics involved in this pandemic isn’t going to do him a bit of good.  He has yet to utter a syllable of solace to any of the souls who have died from this disease (despite claiming during an ABC World News Tonight snippet that “To all the people who have lost someone, there’s nobody - I don’t sleep at night thinking about it - there’s nobody who’s taken it harder than me”) he’s spent the lion’s share of his time ignoring and deriding the very scientists charged with creating a cure and convincing the public that vaccines don’t work unless they are used to vaccinate the ailing.

And, to make matters even worse, it now seems clear that ‘45 has kept up a schedule of campaigning, speaking and fund-raising amongst hyper-wealthy, maskless donors inside stadiums, airplane hangars and the gardens  of the nation’s  home: the White House.  Will his having contracted COVID-19 change his outlook or force him to communicate in a more compassionate, understanding way?  As much as I wish it would, I fear the answer is “No, no, a thousand times no!”  He has created - either with full knowledge  or against his will - an  “October Surprise” to beat the band.  While his political opponents (Obama, Biden, Harris, Pelosi, Schumer, Schiff et al) have ceased their negative political ads and publicly urged prayers and best wishes, Trump and his coterie have continued blasting the Democrats, still labeling them “far left ultra Socialists whose only wish is to destroy American society.” 

This is more than sad; it is an utter travesty. 

I for one hope and pray that he finds  his way back to health - diminished though it may be. (BTW: as a medical ethicist, I have been privy to many of the compassionate-use drugs he has been given and have a sense of what they can/may/cannot do.) I wish him all the best and also pray that wherever he winds up, they have world-class medical care like at Walter Reed. He will need it.

30 days until the election . . .

Copyright©2020 Kurt F.  Stone